Wednesday, February 23, 2011

To revolution or not to revolution?

Because that’s the question the world has been asking itself about the events rapidly shaping Middle East and North Africa, isn’t it? How will these power changes affect us? Now if you somehow haven’t come into contact with a newspaper or a news channel for the past two months and you’re thinking to yourself, “What revolution? The one where they dumped some tea in that harbor and a declaration was signed?” then allow me to recap.

It all started in the North African country of Tunisia, where a young man in mid-December lit himself on fire in protest of not being able to sell his vegetables without permission. This act sparked a built-up anger in the people who soon took to the streets in violent protest against their government over unemployment, corruption, and repression of political freedoms. After numerous deaths and injuries, Tunisia successfully toppled their government and ousted their dictator-president of 23 years.

The winds of change then blew across North Africa and into Egypt, where the people became inspired by Tunisia’s success and took to the streets themselves, demanding the resignation of their dictator-president of 30 years, Hosni Mubarak. Huge fights broke out between anti-Mubarak protesters and Mubarak loyalists in the heart of Cairo, until Mubarak succumbed to pressure and resigned. A temporary military government has been put into place.

The revolts didn’t stop with Egypt and Tunisia. Throughout January the countries of Morocco, Algeria, Libya, Jordan, Bahrain, Yemen, and Iran have all been experiencing their own protests. Some of these have also turned deadly, as in Libya, where snipers have been killing men, women and children in the protests. Now the Libyan president’s son has announced that its government will wage civil war and fight “to the last bullet.”

So where does this leave us? Well, it’s obvious where it leaves our politicians. It was only days into the Egyptian revolution when America’s Obama was announcing his full support of the anti-Mubarak protesters and that he believed change should happen “now”. Britain’s Cameron is now publicizing the UK’s status as new Egypt’s “friend”.

Cairo
I don’t blame them. Mr. Obama stepped into power of a country disliked by many across the world for its unwanted presence in other countries’ affairs, these including countries in North Africa and the Middle East. I can’t blame him for wanting to brighten America’s battered image in these countries by befriending the protesters of Egypt. The same goes for Cameron, although I don’t think Britain has to work on its image as much as the U.S. Of course, whether these politicians’ motivations are really image-based or economically-based (the Middle East controlling 70% of the world’s oil) is left up to debate. The point is, is that Egypt is a powerful voice in the Islamic world, and the Western leaders want to get on their good side for once.

However, I’m not so sure that Obama’s statement of Mubarak stepping down “now” was correct. Mubarak made it clear he was going to resign, but that he was afraid of a power-vacuum that would be left after he was gone. Having a authoritarian government for 30 years makes the idea of this “power-vacuum” not an unreasonable one. If we step back and look at past revolutions, like the Russian Revolution, we can see that the overthrowing of governments do not always result in a better country. The Tsarist government had been toppled only to be replaced by a worse government – the Communists. So the idea of worse men seizing power in Egypt – and in other countries – is a possibility.

Russian Revolution of 1917
I believe this is a case where the UN should step into to work with the people to have a fair, democratic vote for the new leadership of Egypt and other Islamic countries. However, the UN should tread carefully in these countries to not over-step boundaries. Revolutions are always extreme and uncertain times. It is impossible to tell whether things will turn for the better, or for the worse.

That being said, I praise the people of Tunisia and Egypt for standing up to political repression and taking a bold step towards democracy.  It is time for the corrupt authoritarian rulers of North Africa and the Middle East to step down and pave the way for their countries democratic futures. For now we can only hope for these revolutions will come to a peaceful end – and that these changes are indeed for the better.

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